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根據《2000財政年度國防授權法》向國會報告中華人民共和國的軍事力量
根據《2000財政年度國防授權法》第1202款關于“中華人民共和國年度軍事力量報告”的規定,國防部長應每年提交一份報告“關于中國的當前及未來軍事戰略,報告中應針對目前和今后20年人民解放軍的可能的軍事技術的發展,中國的安全戰略和軍事戰略,以及軍事組織和作戰觀念.
Section 1202, “Annual Report on Military Power of the People’s Republic of China,” of the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2000, Public Law 106-65, provides that the Secretary of Defense shall submit a report “on the current and future military strategy of the People’s Republic of China. The report shall address the current and probable future course of military-technological development on the People’s Liberation Army and the tenets and probable development of Chinese grand strategy, security strategy, and military strategy, and of the military organizations and operational concepts, through the next 20 years.”
內容提要
中國在區域性的政治和經濟實力的迅速崛起,以成為全球當今戰略環境的一個重要因素,對本地區和世界發揮著重要影響. 美國歡迎出現一個和平與繁榮的中國,鼓勵中國作為一個負責任的國際利益,并對全球的健康與發展承擔更大的責任. 然而, 中國還有許多不確定性的未來,包括中國擴充軍力,權力如何使用.
中國人民解放軍,正在謀求全面轉型,由在其領土的陸軍大規模消耗戰爭,轉變為能夠打贏短期的, 高強度沖突,對付高技術對手--中國指為"局部戰爭條件下的信息化" 中國的軍事實力目前仍然有限,但是, 正如在2006年的四年國防報告中所講, 它"具有很大的潛力,在軍事上與美國的競爭,在未來時間可能抵消美國傳統的軍事優勢. "
中國短期內的焦點是準備在臺灣海峽的可能性軍事行動,包括美國的干預, 看來是它現代化規劃一個重要的驅動. 不過,分析中國的軍事采購與戰略思維,表明北京也可能因為資源沖突或領土爭端,而在其它地區發生突發事件.
中國的軍事轉型, 在發展速度和規模上,近年來一直在增長, 購買外國先進武器,刺激了本國國防和科學技術產業,而且對武裝部隊的改革影響深遠.中國軍隊日益擴大的軍事能力,是改變東亞的軍事平衡的一個重要因素中國的戰略能力的改善所產生的影響遠遠超出了亞太地區.
中國戰略力量的現代化,是提高其戰略的打擊能力,例如東風-31洲際彈道導彈, 2006年初取得了初步的威脅. 中國的太空計劃的標志,是2007年1月成功試驗一種能直接攻擊衛星的武器, 反衛星武器對人類的航天飛行構成了危險,并危及到所有空間航天的國家的資產. 中國在繼續追求傳統的陸地,空中,海洋,以及空間和網絡空間的現代戰場.
外部世界有限的了解中國的軍事現代化的動機,決策與關鍵能力. 中國領導人尚未充分解釋中國人民解放軍擴充軍力的目的或預期目的. 中國的行動,在某些方面似乎越來越不符合其申明的政策. 中國實際的國防支出仍遠高于官方公布的數字. 這種缺乏透明度的中國軍事事務自然會遭到國際社會的不理解和迅速的反應.
China’s rapid rise as a regional political and economic power with global aspirations is an important element of today’s strategic environment – one that has signifi cant implications for the region and the world. The United States welcomes the rise of a peaceful and prosperous China, and it encourages China to participate as a responsible international stakeholder by taking on a greater share of responsibility for the health and success of the global system. However, much uncertainty surrounds the future course China’s leaders will set for their country, including in the area of China’s expanding military power and how that power might be used.The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is pursuing comprehensive transformation from a mass army designed for protracted wars of attrition on its territory to one capable of fi ghting and winning short-duration, highintensity confl icts against high-tech adversaries – which China refers to as “local wars under conditions of informatization.” China’s ability to sustain military power at a distance, at present, remains limited but, as noted in the 2006 Quadrennial Defense Review Report, it “has the greatest potential to compete militarily with the United States and fi eld disruptive military technologies that could over time offset traditional U.S. military advantages.”China’s near-term focus on preparing for military contingencies in the Taiwan Strait, including the possibility of U.S. intervention, appears to be an important driver of its modernization plans. However, analysis of China’s military acquisitions and strategic thinking suggests Beijing is also generating capabilities for other regional contingencies, such as confl ict over resources or territory. The pace and scope of China’s military transformation has increased in recent years, fueled by continued high rates of investment in its domestic defense and science and technology industries, acquisition of advanced foreign weapons, and far reaching reforms of the armed forces. The expanding military capabilities of China’s armed forces are a major factor in changing East Asian military balances; improvements in China’s strategic capabilities have ramifi cations far beyond the Asia Pacific region.China’s strategic forces modernization is enhancing strategic strike capabilities, as evidenced by the DF-31 intercontinental range ballistic missile, which achieved initial threat availability in 2006. China’s counterspace program – punctuated by the January 2007 successful test of a direct-ascent, anti-satellite weapon – poses dangers to human space fl ight and puts at risk the assets of all space faring nations. China’s continued pursuit of area denial and anti-access strategies is expanding from the traditional land, air, and sea dimensions of the modern battlefi eld to include space and cyber-space. The outside world has limited knowledge of the motivations, decision-making, and key capabilities supporting China’s military modernization. China’s leaders have yet to explain adequately the purposes or desired endstates of the PLA’s expanding military capabilities. China’s actions in certain areas increasingly appear inconsistent with its declaratory policies. Actual Chinese defense expenditures remain far above offi cially disclosed fi gures. This lack of transparency in China’s military affairs will naturally and understandably prompt international responses that hedge against the unknown. |
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